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China has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.